Saturday, March 2, 2013

How will PR fare in the coming general election?

Speech by M Kula Segaran, DAP National Vice Chairman and MP for Ipoh Barat at DAP Pasir Pinji Ceramah on Friday, March 01, 2013

How will PR fare in the coming general election? 

Over the last few months, two questions which many voters have asked me are firstly, when will the Prime Minister dissolve Parliament and secondly, will Pakatan Rakyat recapture Perak state and helm Putrajaya governments at the next general election. 

Given the flip flop behavior of the Prime Minister and his lack of confidence about the electoral prospects of BN in the coming polls, no one including many BN leaders can say for sure when Najib will decide to do battle with PR. 

But with Negeri Sembilan State Assembly’s tenure ending on March 26, we can expect Najib to dissolve Parliament latest by March 26. 

How will PR fare in the coming general election? 

I am confident that Perakians will remember the despicable method used by BN to wrest power from Perak PR and they will therefore give their strong support to PR at the next polls and make PR the next Perak state government.

It was certainly a dark chapter in Perak and Malaysia‘s political history that the Perak PR right to govern was “robbed” by BN. 

The BN‘s act must never be accepted and forgiven and hence come the general election, I am sure Perakians will rise to the occasion and vote out the BN state government.

Will PR be able to topple the BN federal government? 

The Asian Strategy and Leadership Institute (ASLI) has forecasted that Barisan National will win at the next polls.
An extract of the report says: 

According to our final analysis, BN will win the 13th general election. Only the size of the majority remains uncertain. BN is expected to win between 123 and 135 seats. This is the most likely outcome. 

However, if the Malay and Indian voters swing back to BN is strong and Najib is able to bring back more undecided Chinese, then BN can win up to 150 seats – which will restore BN’s two-thirds majority. The third scenario is that BN retains about the same number of seats – around 140 – it won in 2008

I have travelled up and down the country attending political events and meeting many people. Judging from the people’s mood and the feedback received, I dare say that no serious political analyst will think that it is very likely that BN can win with a two thirds parliamentary majority.

It is certainly too early to say for certain that whether BN or PR will emerge as winner in the coming polls. But the picture will be clearer during the campaigning period after the nomination.

Before the Parliament was dissolved in 2008, it was evident that there was strong support for the Opposition but very few if any politicians had seriously thought about the possibility of BN being dealt a heavy blow in its electoral performance. 

But the wind of change just picked up after nomination day and a political tsunami took place on polling day.
It is evident that  the present mood of change is much stronger than that which existed pre 2008 polls.

I am certain that the momentum will pick up and peak on the polling day of the coming general election. Hence, I predict a PR victory at the nation’s 13th and most important general election.

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